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How to Determine if There Is a Housing Bubble in Your Neighborhood
from wikiHow – The How to Manual That You Can Edit
While the surging real estate market appears to be cooling down, home prices are still soaring in many areas. Amid the chaos, some economists warn that much of the country is experiencing a housing market bubble: a period of unsustainable price growth fueled by speculation and inertia. Will home prices in your area continue through the roof, or will they hit a ceiling or, worse yet, fall through the floor? Nobody knows for sure, but a little research can help you identify a potential bubble–before it bursts.
Steps
- Compare the cost of renting to the cost of buying in your community. If the total tax-adjusted cost of owning–that is, the monthly mortgage payment, plus taxes and insurance minus tax deductions for your home payments–is much higher than renting, the local market may be experiencing a bubble.
- Find a good real estate agent and ask if he or she thinks there is a bubble. Also be sure to ask other people. Your accountant, financial planner, and friends may be able to provide valuable insights into market conditions, and–unlike a real estate agent–they have no interest in persuading you to buy a house.
- Look back in time and see how fast prices have risen. Whether you’re buying a home for a short-term investment or long-term residence, you want its value to appreciate. Too much appreciation too quickly, however, could signal that prices are ready to take a plunge. Nationally, the median home sales price has increased 50% in the past five years (Source: The Weekly Standard; April 3, 2006). That sort of rapid growth has many analysts worried.
- Check the price-to-income ratio in the local housing market. This ratio compares the median home price to the median average salary in your area. Historically, the price-to-income ratio has hovered around 4 to 1, but recently the national figure has grown to 8 to 1, and the ratio is even higher in some areas (The Weekly Standard). When homes are no longer affordable, it’s likely the market will adjust. In other words, a bubble may be ready to burst.
- Research your housing market thoroughly. Your local newspaper is a good place to start, but you should also check good internet sources. A search engine query for “housing market,” “home sales,” or “housing bubble” can turn up useful results, including the latest news and analysis for major metropolitan areas.
Tips
- Ask yourself why you want to own a home, and explore your options. Home ownership is an integral part of the “American Dream,” but it just doesn’t make sense to pay too much for a house. That doesn’t mean you need to give up on your dream, but you may want to postpone it if you see signs of a bubble in your area.
- If you’re looking to invest in real estate, it’s easy to get caught up in the frenzy of a booming market, especially if you know people who’ve recently made a killing buying and selling homes. Remember, however, that wise investors buy low and sell high. If home prices are already high, they may continue to rise, but there’s a real danger they’ll plummet. You don’t want to get stuck with an overpriced house when the bubble bursts.
- There are a number of calculators available on the internet to help you determine the cost of renting versus the cost of buying. See the External Links section for one provided by the Center for Economic And Policy Research.
Warnings
- Beware salespeople bearing advice. Real estate agents make a living selling houses, so they have a powerful incentive to get you to buy one. No matter what your agent tells you about the housing market, make sure you do your own research, too. If you use the internet to check out the market, make sure the sites you visit are reputable and as unbiased as possible.
- Watch out for unconventional loans. As homes grow more and more unaffordable, buyers are increasingly turning to innovative financing schemes, including buying a home with no down payment or paying only interest for the first few years. While these loans may look attractive, they can be risky, and you may find yourself with no equity–or even negative equity–if you need to sell your home.
Related wikiHows
- How to Find Your Ideal House
- How to Stage Your Home for a Sale
- How to Sell Your Own Home
- How to Buy a House
- How to Get Your Boyfriend to Move In
Sources and Citations
Article provided by wikiHow, a wiki how-to manual. Please edit this article and find author credits at the original wikiHow article on How to Determine if There Is a Housing Bubble in Your Neighborhood. All content on wikiHow can be shared under a Creative Commons license.
Did you see the e-mail that Dr. Joe Vitale sent yesterday? He’s
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– Original Email –
Hi Everyone,
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By far, it was the biggest response that I have ever seen from
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It was because of Hypnotic Marketing. I used one of the secret
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I took the Hypnotic Selling Secrets course off of the market
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By Toby Unwin
If you know anything about real estate, you know that residential sellers are in big trouble. Some homeowners are getting downright desperate to unload their properties. And instead of wanting to buy more, most investors are looking to unload rental properties that are bleeding red ink every month.
You might be wondering just how the residential market got into this situation.
A few years ago, when the stock market was going down and mortgage rates were cheap, people started buying more property. Which was a good idea. But, as a result, real estate prices jumped up and people believed they would continue to do so. Now that was a bad idea.
Buyers grew accustomed to assuming that you could buy a property pre-construction and it would automatically be worth 30 percent more upon completion. It never occurred to them that if the profits were so sure, builders would only sell the completed houses.
It got to the point where just about everyone you’d run into would tell you they were quitting their job to become a realtor – a sure sign that a market top was imminent. It was a bubble built on emotion. And when it burst, lots of people got hurt.
The same thing did NOT happen with commercial real estate. Sure, commercial property increased along with residential property. But it didn’t go up quite as much and nowhere near as wildly. And it’s not dropping.
Here’s the thing. An investment property is not valued on how nice the kitchen is, if it’s in a good school district, or any other touchy-feely stuff like that. An investor wants to know one thing: “How much money will I make from this?” That’s all. If it will cost him more in financing and expenses than he will get in rent, he won’t buy it. Simple as that.
That’s the thing with income property. You know how much you’ll make from a property before you buy it. And it moves in different cycles than residential real estate.
Why Commercial Real Estate Is a Great Investment – Even When Residential Isn’t
The value of a commercial property is generally based on the amount of income it brings in. If the income doesn’t rise, the price of the property doesn’t go up much. The flip side is also true. If the income doesn’t fall, the value of the property usually doesn’t fall much either.
Why? The seller knows you’re only going to buy the property as an investment, not because it’s pretty or near your friend’s house. It has to be a deal, or you won’t be interested. They tell you right up front how much the property makes in gross rent (total cash coming in) and NOI (net operating income – the profit you’re left with after expenses).
Essentially, buying a commercial property is buying an income stream. So it makes sense that the gyrations of the residential market have little effect on it.
Right now, for instance, Miami apartment condos are in a major slump – along with the rest of the South Florida housing market. But booming international trade has made for a healthy warehouse market in Miami, including a booming market for condo warehouses. Similarly, office, industrial, and retail space are strong in many of the same parts of the country that are suffering major slowdowns in the housing market.
Seek and Ye Shall Find
Commercial properties are listed on the Board of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service (MLS), but you’ll find a much wider selection and more extensive information on websites that are dedicated to commercial property. Two of the biggest are Re3w.com and Loopnet.com.
Both sites have listings in all commercial categories, including apartments, from all over the country. Loopnet.com has many listings that can be viewed for free, with perhaps 20 percent or so reserved for paid subscribers. Re3w.com is a paid service that can add value to Loopnet’s free searches, and it offers a 30-day trial. Browse this site to begin to familiarize yourself with commercial properties. You can look for properties in your hometown or in your favorite growth market.
You’ll see a few ratios mentioned. Don’t let them throw you off. They’re not that complicated. You’ll also find “net income” mentioned a lot. That’s the cash the property produces after expenses but before income taxes or debt service.
The most commonly mentioned term is “cap rate,” short for capitalization rate. That’s simply the net income divided by the purchase price. All other things being equal, the higher the cap rate, the better. However, all other things are usually not equal. So cap rates depend on the type of the property and its condition.
A high-end apartment complex being sold as a condo conversion might be offered at a 5 percent cap, while a small complex in a working-class neighborhood might go for a 12 percent cap. A well-maintained retirement mobile-home park might go for a 7 percent cap, while a low-income mobile-home park could go for a 20 percent cap.
If you could put up with the aggravation of running it, or know someone capable of managing it for you, the low-income property could be a good deal. If not, you’d want to set your sights on a nicer property, even though it would not be as profitable.
The best way to get comfortable with these and other key commercial real estate ideas is to surf commercial sites and look at the offerings. Do this at least as often as you surf for residential properties… and you may find yourself quickly transitioning into a real estate baron of the commercial kind.
[Ed. Note: Toby Unwin is an active commercial real estate investor and author of the best-selling ETR Real Estate home study course "One Deal From Retirement." In a reservations-only teleseminar this Wednesday, August 22, Toby will reveal how a single commercial property deal can provide you with enough equity and cash flow to retire permanently from the 9 to 5 grind. To secure your spot today, click here.]
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Hill Country real estate is unique to any other in the country…. or the world, for that matter. I’m sure you’ve heard people describe Hill Country land as “heaven on earth.” Well…they’re right! Come out to the Hill Country and see what God has created just for you!
If you’re a realtor and would like to contribute to this blog, or showcase some of your properties, you may leave comments – along with the URL to your website – and you will receive traffic to your site. How much traffic? Who’s to tell. But you’re welcome to give this strategy a try.
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